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Ajeya Cotra

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Timelines, risk, alignment and grantmaking perspectives

Type

Individual expert

Priority

Tier 1 · core

Perspective

Frontier-risk analysis

Best for

Long-form analysis and research framing

Publishes

Recurring

Editor's note

Included in the AI Safety Guide expert directory.

Recent from Ajeya Cotra

• In a new post, I walk through some very rough modeling (thanks to @RyanGreenblatt for lots of help a 2026-11-06
• As AI improves, uplift will get even higher. If it overcomes diminishing returns and bottlenecks, a 2026-11-06
• The authors of the METR AI R&D report estimate that AI is nearly doubling the rate of capabiliti 2026-11-06
• I am sad that so much of the underlying evidence in this report was redacted. I think evidence trans 2026-11-05
• Our colleagues found that Anthropic’s capabilities progress has doubled, mainly due to AI. Ryan’s mo 2026-11-05